Search Here
Categories
#
Mega Trends......
 2020-02-13

Delhi at epicentre of global groundwater crisis 

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/delhi-at-epicentre-of-global-groundwater-crisis-report/articleshow/68131980.cms






We are surely and remorselessly being sucked into more terrifying climate change induced freak weather events. First time ever a regular storm Patricia metamorphosed itself to such a monster within 24 hours breaking all records in the Western Hemisphere. Yes like veritable frogs we are living in our comfort zones of judging the future based upon the past. The events in the past few years bear a grim testimony to our likely future. So far 2015 has been the hottest ever year month by month in recorded history. Flooding events in all continents have hit new highs. Arctic melting is accelerating. Sea levels rise is compounding. CO2 emissions mounting with peak levels still about 15 years away.

Even though we know that human actions and lifestyle is squarely responsible for this catastrophe waiting to happen, most of us are  hardened skeptics living in denial mode. Also big industry and the wheels of capitalism will not slow down and restructure society to avoid the coming climate collapse. The entire edifice of capitalistic society is based upon continuous improvements and newer and better technology models of cars, consumer durables, homes, armaments, digital devices.....these have to to be sold through hyper competition as there is excess capacity in all spheres. In the process we all are trapped in our ever rising so called standards of living and keeping up with the joneses. So there is no way we can cry a halt to the inexorable turning of the wheels of doom. 

The third mega trend is that of economic fragility which has been plaguing most of the world especially the advanced economies. Greece was the canary in the mine. Most of Europe is mired in perilous stagnation, rising unemployment...US is the biggest debtor country and ironically still the largest consuming society. It's in the interest of others like China and larger emerging economies to keep the albatross US afloat. The bubble is getting larger every month. With great difficulty the US congress just about manages to agree to ever increasing caps of fiscal debt which has crossed $18 tr. If we add the corporate and individual debt of Americans, the figure is around a truly staggering $60 tr, which is 330% of US GDP. The corresponding ratio for China is a mind boggling 280%. The entire world is awash on an ocean of debt. As I have mentioned elsewhere till debt does us apart! New paradigms of economics have arisen with negative interest rates! Imploding economies and black holes....

The next mega trend is the macabre violence, terror and conflict zones all over the world. All the continents excepting Australia have pockets of conflict zones which are expanding their sphere of influence. During the past half century or so the strife has been increasing. Now with hitech weaponry the war zones have become bloody with refugees and migrants who are seeking peaceful havens like currently flowing into Europe. The big powers like US and Russia are also involved in many of these wars ostensibly to broker peace or back one of the sides in the name of justice. This has spawned several terror groups which want to take revenge for atrocities suffered by their people. In a multi polar world with US as the big brother there are so many permutation and combinations of war camps. Apart from this, violence is creeping into our everyday lives with proliferation of guns and weak or no gun control laws. At the unsettling extreme trigger happy school kids in US toting guns. Also psychotic individuals especially in advanced nations who have perpetuated mass killings. Then the certain possibility of terror groups and rogue nations possessing dirty nukes. The future is indeed fraught with diabolical scenarios. 

The final mega trend is the robotesque future we are moving towards. Computers and their ilk are gaining a stranglehold on our lives. The rapid growth of digital technology during the past 25 years is truly chilling. Now a quarter of humanity has access to the Internet. Smart phone usage is spiralling out of control. Laptops and tablets have surpassed desktops. Nano chip technology is entering into cars, household durables, entertainment, surveillance, health care..... The cloud is gaining prominence. Humans are interconnected through multi devices and the social networks... The paradigms of governance, security, teaching, learning, sales, marketing, commerce, business, manufacturing, production, health care, entertainment, finance, banking, capital markets...are undergoing inconceivable changes...ushering a digital highway to a future which only the digiterate will succeed... At this rate robots are gaining intelligence at geometric progression.... The day is not far off when the intelligence will surpass that of human..!

Future shock is now. Truly we are looking at the Kurzweillian exponential growth of artificial intelligence leading to a brave new world of robots and machine intelligence controlling humanity, climate change hurtling towards irreversible environmental degradation, neo economics where negative interests and burgeoning debt as the new norm, mounting violence with nuke crazy terrorists and tin pot dictators...The sci-fi, cli-fi movies we are seeing are harbingers of the new age. Mankind is truly caught up between Scylla and Charybdis. The final game changer could be inexorable climate change which could lead to the sixth mass extinction. The pace of climate change as seen over the past couple of years could be the tipping point leading to exponential changes. Hence the staid climate models which have been relied upon may not be good predictors for the future. Yes. Climate change is going to be a major factor which will dictate the future of humanity over the next 35 years. 

Read More
#
SURVIVAL KIT - MANUA...
 2019-02-08
Energy usage reduction:
  • Stop using air conditioning and heating for temperatures between 10C and 30C in cold countries and up to 35C in warm countries across the world. 
  • Running hot and cold water to be stopped except in hospitals. 
  • Ban usage of washing machines, dryers, dish washing machines due to their intensive use of water and power. 
  • Planned and sparing use of lifts.  
  • No neon and bright lighting.
  • No ironing of clothes. Ban on suits above 20C.
Fossil fuel reduction:
  • Stop using internal combustion engine cars, SUVs, vans, and all kind of trucks except for food transport, medical needs.
  • stop usage of fossil fuel and other non-renewable energy production except in hospitals. 
  • Reduce air travel by 75%. Permit only essential and humanitarian travel. All other travel by bus, train, etc to be based up urgency, essential services, critical industries…
  • No new coal plants. Phased closure of existing coal plants in one year framework. Stop new hydel projects.
Population reduction:

  • Strict family planning and population control / reduction through one child limits and no child rules in required cases. 
  • Start Voluntary Death / End of Life (EoL) Schemes (VES). Starting with those aged 100+, then 90+, 80+, 70+, 60+ in a phased manner. Incentives for VES like special climate change relief / alleviation facilities or privileges for children, grandchildren like more food, medicines, etc. 
  • Legalise Euthanasia and mercy killing for those terminally ill above 70 and euthanasia for those above 50. 
  • Stop hopeless ICU / brain dead / ventilator living above 30 days for all above 60. Starting with 100+. Discourage life support system living.
  • ICUs only for those below or = 60
  • Withdrawal / ban on medicines for life style diseases for those above 70/80.
  • EoL resorts for a EoL. Rooms, suites for EoL. Near and dear ones can spend final days with departing one. Morphine, LSD endings. Facilities for send-off parties. 
  • Green processes for body disposal. 
Carbon emission reduction:
  • Closure of all non-essential manufacturing units. All products to be subject to strict water and carbon limits. Products to be water and carbon positive. 
  • Strict water control and caps on uses. Rationing of potable water.
  • Limiting cloud usage of all social network websites. 
  • Ban on smoke emitting activities.
  • Clamp down on non-green conspicuous consumption.
  • Reduce high carbon agriculture.
  • Phase out non-vegetarian food. Water intensive meats first. 
Climate police, surveillance, information, networks, etc to be set up for ensuring strict implementation with stringent 360 deg punishment process. Existing departments in these areas to work closely with climate bodies and report to them. 

Ministry of Climate with overarching powers to eradicate the root causes which have led the present climocalypse state….
Read More
#
Future is Now...
 2019-02-08
A world without the traditional passage of seasons as we know them now. The death of seasons has already begun. Violent changes between heat, rainfall, snow, storms, floods...a season less or aseasonal world...

All coastal cities are uninhabitable..the rich have moved far inland to higher elevations by 2020s...the poor have either been washed away by sudden high surges of the seas / oceans or have become climate refugees living in shacks built on inhospitable terrain....allotted to them by the leaders mostly members of the deep state...

Huge tracts of Africa, Indian subcontinent, Central America, Middle East have become uninhabitable due to searing heat of over 40c for several months a year, with night temps around 35c and wet bulb temps above 30c... these vast terrains have become deserts, savannahs, arid with virtually no vegetation, animals...some weird mutant cacti, underground insects and snakes are the sole inhabitants....
Most of the coastal and other cities within 100 km of the seas have become deserted wastelands....by 2025 all humans who could afford moved away to safer climes...where they started communes, towns with living structures which could withstand high wind speed storms... more than half of the cities which at one time were eloquent testimonies of the progress and peak of human civilisation were in discrepit state and ruins....after being battered by category 6 hurricanes and abnormal flooding... 

All cities across the globe had by 2020 become nightmarish concrete jungles, heat sink infernos.... Sodom and Gomorrahs of the 21st century....filled with zombies who were mindless consumerists ...fueling the wheels of capitalism...it was a world run by the machinations of the deep state... which encouraged energy intensive lifestyles, air conditioned existences, addiction to internet, so called electric environment friendly cars...

media, tv, social media, entertainment juggernauts like Netflix, amazon ruled supreme... in fact the creator of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg had become president of the richest country....the top tech titans controlled the world ... google, Microsoft, Facebook, amazon, apple... it was indeed the age of virtual dominance...digital addiction had reached frightening proportions ... ppl in Japan had starting marrying Barbie robots...robot popn had crossed half a billion...robots were creating and manufacturing robots .... as if like their human masters and creators robots were procreating robots...mutants.. monsters.. it was indeed the age of singularity ... humarobs ... were also being created where humans had implanted chips into their brains and other body parts 

Population of the world had crossed 8 bn... more than 100% higher than the optimum popn which could be sustainably supported by the natural resources of the planet...the earth's resources were being over exploited...in fact the sustainable resources were being depleted by July each year... due to prolonged famines in Africa, migrants were swarming all over Europe ... the popn explosion was strangely coexisting with declining popn and infertility mainly among the richer, more educated segments of society.... while the burgeoning new births were mainly among the poorer sections and fundamentalist religious sects...which also fomented terror... there was a continuous running feuds  between the two major religions of the world...where the fundamentalists mounted regular terror attacks on the western world...

Read More
#
Accelerating Climate...
 2019-02-09
The past 20 years are among the 22 hottest years of the planet. 2018 has been a roller coaster of a year with record number of extreme climate change events spread across the globe. We are living through Dicken’s “It was best of times, it was the worst of times…” redux.  Global capitalism is peaking in all spheres epitomized by urbanization, cars, air travel, consumerism, technological advancement, mobiles, telecommunication, internet, entertainment, energy use, etc. all of which are on a steep rising curve. Parallelly we are paying a Faustian price for it in terms of global warming, drought, heatwaves, melting arctic and glaciers, storms, precipitation, flooding, wildfires, atmospheric and ocean pollution, sea level rise and extreme climate events. Almost 200 countries are meeting in Katowice, Poland at COP24 to finalise the practical implementation of 2015 Paris Agreement. This meeting assumes significance especially in the wake of the recent IPCC special report on limiting global warming and US National Climate Assessment report.

The COP meetings have been held almost annually since 1995. The 1997 meeting in Japan was a milestone with the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol. The international response to this protocol, and subsequent ones on greenhouse gas emissions has been mixed. For the developed countries which had contributed most to the cumulative CO2 emissions since the industrial revolution it was easier to fix targets since their per capita emissions were already at much high levels compared to the developing nations with much lower per capita and cumulative emissions (excepting China)[1].  The trend of annual CO2 emissions has been ominously steep from 6 bn tons in 1950 to over 36 bn tons now.

During this period since Peak Civilisation[2] i.e. 1960s all indicators which are supposed to signify economic and social progress like GDP, number of motor vehicles, tourism arrivals have increased by multiples of 65, 9.5, 17.8, respectively. Human population during this period has risen by 2.8 times. This indicates that science and technological progress has contributed to higher growth multiples of all indicators vis-a-vis human population goaded by our obsession and addiction for higher, bigger, faster, richer. Human intelligence, too, has multiplied by much higher multiples. We have reached a stage where computers and AI are expected to pass the Turing test by 2029 and the age of singularity will be reached by 2045 according to Kurzweil[3]. Its part of the exponential evolutionary process where humans are now on verge of giving birth to independent AI like HAL in Kubrick’s classic “2001 A Space Odyssey”.

In this future shockean[4] scenario, it’s very difficult both for the industrial/banking/fossil lobby/capitalist nexus and politicians to pull back on carbon emissions in view of the immense stakes which they have in maximizing profits and winning votes, respectively. Forever economic growth is the mantra of capitalism even though the growth is inequitable. For politicians to report continuous economic growth is a sine qua non for success. The fossil lobby has both deep pockets and long tentacles to push their cause till the wells run dry. Projections of fossil fuel share of total energy requirements during 2014-35 show that there is going to be only a slight decline from 86% to 81%[5]. Hence unless rigorous steps are taken to curb fossil fuels, carbon emissions are unlikely to be reduced by the required 50% benchmark as recommended by IPCC.  

Apart from the above bleak prospects, there now alarming trends of release of methane into the atmosphere from the permafrost below the rapidly melting Arctic and northern Siberia[6]. Methane is variously stated to be 28 to 150 times more potent than CO2. 100% ice free Arctic is expected latest by 2020 according to Guy McPherson, climate scientist, which is broadly in line with other climate scientists. According to the climate scientists such as Peter Wadhams, Paul Beckwith, Dahr Jamail and Guy McPherson[7], there is mounting evidence that abrupt and accelerating climate change has already started. This will be intensified by spurt in methane breaking free from the permafrost, which may prove to be the tipping point for further accelerating climate change. Till about a couple of years ago, most of us were safely ensconced in our cocooned comfort zones with the possibility of extreme climate change and collapse events faraway in the nebulous distant future around 2100.

A slew of extreme climate events has occurred with accelerating tempo over the past few years which now reinforces the rather despairing prognosis that we are possibly hurtling towards a climate collapse scenario much earlier. For those who were born after 1970 it could possibly occur during their lifetimes. Like in the X-Files the governments of the most developed nations, especially the US, have been shielding this stark reality from their citizens. Climate scientists like Gordon MacDonald[8] and James Hansen had repeatedly reported to the US presidents and senate committees since the 1960s. MacDonald had submitted reports to Lyndon Johnson and Hansen had testified before a senate committee during early 1980s[9]. MacDonald was a climate prophet who had also met Kennedy. But like all prophets he was far ahead of his times and not given his due recognition.

Around this time, The Club of Rome[10] was formed in 1968 which focused upon environmental degradation and future of humanity. The members of the Club of Rome submitted a report “The Limits to Growth” in 1972 which through computer simulations proved that economic growth could not go beyond the finite resources of the planet. Another seminal and pioneering event of 1968 was the publication of “The Population Bomb” by Stanford University Professor Paul R. Ehrlich[11] (along with his wife, Anne Ehrlich). Ehrlich was another equally prescient climate prophet who was not heeded to by the powers that be.


This was the most inconvenient truth[12] which all of us are refusing to face. Eventual climate collapse is like mass societal death which human beings do not like to contemplate. We are too busy in our materialistic lives never wanting to admit to ourselves about the impermanence of life. Death is the biggest certainty of life. Eastern religions, philosophies and ways of life like Sanatan Dharma (origin of Hinduism) and Buddhism view death as an essential continuum of birth and life. There is a tradition in Bhutan[13] to contemplate death five times every day since it’s the ultimate reality. Tibetan Buddhism[14] lays paramount importance to death and impermanence of life.

Denial is the stock reaction of most people when confronted with the inevitability of climate change and collapse. Hence its difficult to drum up sizeable support for climate change social groups. Psychoanalysts like Sally Weintrobe (Engaging with Climate Change) are trying to adopt a multidisciplinary approach to helping overcome denial and avowal.

in view of the bleak scenario where carbon and methane emissions are poised to rise further or at best stay stable till 2030, it is high time for us to plan and implement measures which will help soften the harsh blows of extreme climate events and also for coping with gradually worsening climate. Like many other countries, India also has chalked out an action plan for Climate Change[15] consisting of National Missions for Solar, Water, Green India, Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem, Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change, Enhanced Energy Efficiency, Sustainable Habitat, and Sustainable Agriculture. At the governmental level most of plans are at a macro level, which off course will be implemented at designated regions. Apart from these type of plans, Ahmedabad, capital of Gujarat state, which experiences exceptional heat waves has prepared a pioneering Heat Action Plan[16] which has become a model for several cities. These plans are basically focused upon how to mitigate heat through painting roofs white, etc.

In Spite of the plans being made at the governmental level which are mostly macro in nature, there is an urgent need for all other social groups to prepare plans and implement them. New Grammar of Living[17](NGL) has been espousing the need to radical measures to cope with accelerating climate change since 2010. Several measures in the following sections have been mentioned in the NGL blogs.

A.   Measures for softening the harsh impact of extreme climate events:

1.     In view of the rising temperatures across the globe, heat action plans need to be prepared for most cities in the northern hemisphere and also Australia where during the past five years or so temperatures have been more than 2c above long term averages. During 2018, extreme heat waves have been experienced in most countries, even in places like Japan, Scandinavia, UK, USA, Canada, lower Europe where we would normally never associate heat waves. In most of these places houses have not been equipped with air conditioning since there was no need earlier. In fact in certain Scandinavian cities, last summer people were allowed to sleep in air-conditioned public spaces like departmental stores etc. Even in Bengaluru where I live there were no fans till the 1980s since it’s at an elevation of 3000 ft. Now not only fans, but also ACs are common in most middle-class families. Hence it is imperative to prepare and implement Heat Action Plans for practically all cities in the tropics and even in the temperate zones.

2.     Urbanisation phenomena has increased significantly since the 1950s especially in developing economies and countries like Japan. This has resulted in severe rise in temperatures, flooding, waste disposal problems, violence, slums to name a few urban nightmares. In view of this there is a need for conscious Deurbanization Plans for all cities with population above 5 mn. Here governments, municipal authorities have a major role to play in terms of providing employment opportunities in semi-urban areas so that migration to cities is reduced. It's quite interesting to note that most extreme climate events seem to occur in densely populated areas since natural wetlands, etc. have been converted into urban sprawls.

3.     With rising sea levels, especially during storms and excessive precipitation, most of the coastal cities in the world are at risk. Recent alarming melting rates of the Arctic, Greenland and warming of oceans portend higher sea level rise. We are actually entering uncharted territories of climate change. Most computer simulation models cannot factor interplay of multiple climate change events, sometimes occurring simultaneously, so we do not have a clear understanding of what the effects will be in the future.  Recent study published in NYT on 19th Nov, 18 shows that by 2100 it is possible up to six extreme climate events could occur simultaneously in certain cities. Hence the need for a concerted bid by all governments to prepare and implement Action Plans for moving the vulnerable population away from all coastal cities, along with rehabilitation of the affected people.

4.     The above could be linked to identification of places which have abundant fresh water supplies, cultivable land, no flooding history with low probability of flooding and high precipitation, etc. These places may be developed by NGOs and other climate change agencies through appropriate funding structures and then sold or leased to the those displaced from coastal cities. There is an urgent need for economists, banks, World Bank, governments, ultra-rich and private equity to arrive at financial solutions for these ventures.

5.     Population control is a central plank in this entire scheme of things. There is an urgent need  to reduce population. This is a delicate subject since the right to have children is the very foundation of all species. Through our anthropogenic acts we have wiped out over 60% of all species. Unless we stop our carbon intensive lifestyles our extinction is not more than eight decades away at the most. By 2035-50 extreme climate would have probably reduced human population by 2 billion. China and India have contributed to the population explosion after the sixties. Although China has peaked, ironically its   government wants people to have two kids now. The next wave of population growth will be from the backwards communities and Africa. Coercive methods of population control could be adopted by all countries under the aegis of UN and IPCC. In due course passive and active strategies for population reduction may be mutually designed and implemented.

6.     Since the 1980s there has been a rise in economic, financial and corporate crises across most economies. Debt has been increasing amongst banks, economies, individuals and institutions. Presently total debt in USA including national, corporate, individual, etc. is around $ 80 trillion, which is little below 4x multiple of its GDP. China too is laden with debt most due to the provinces which have issued bonds to finance 100s of new cities. Global debt is around $ 400 trillion. If we include derivatives, which are weapons of mass destruction, total global debt would be in the stratospheric range of $ 1000 to 1500 trillion depending how we estimate the off-balance derivatives, etc. To add to the debt woes, recent spate of extreme climate events has increased financial losses. According to the NOAA, in the US the cost of extreme weather and climate events (each over $ 1 bn) since 1980 is $ 1.5 tr. Hence it will be increasingly difficult for countries to rebuild infrastructure, facilities, properties damaged by climate events in the future. Climate proof financial and investment planning models should be evolved by research institutions, universities, banks. It will be very difficult for majority of the population, given the acute level of inequalities in most societies, to rehabilitate themselves. Hence need for providing financial planning advice and products for the bottom 90% of population. Similarly, investment and wealth management for the upper middle class and rich should be made factoring in the likely volatile times ahead and identify safe assets, funds to invest in.  

7.     Climate change is going to impact all economic and industrial sectors through their entire supply and value chains. This will impact GDPs of nations, capital, debt and forex markets, investment and mutual funds. Economists will have to create new models which will incorporate risks and cost of various facets of climate. For example, Volkswagen has announced a few days ago that its last combustion engine automobile will roll out in 2026. Other car makers will follow suit. Tectonic shifts will occur across most sectors by 2030. Entire landscape of economic and industrial functioning will change beyond all recognition. Society will need to unlearn the past and usher in new climate change based education, values and customs.  


B.    Coping mechanisms for humans for facing continuous climate events:

1.     Health will be major area where society’s ability to cope with accelerating climate change will be sorely tested. Medical science has helped increase longevity across all continents. Even in developing economies lifespans have increased. Already in few countries due to pollution respiratory ailments have started spiking. As heatwaves become more pronounced, there will be need for timely medical assistance. There is already a strain on the existing healthcare systems. The better hospitals attract the best doctors and cater to the higher income groups. There is an urgent need for building up a wide scale paramedical infrastructure with trained para medical staff to treat those without medical insurance. Special health insurance schemes for treating poorer sections of society like “Ayushman Bharat Yojana Scheme” in India need to be replicated in the developing world. Doctors and nurses as part of their career should be mandated to serve in rural areas and in government hospitals which cannot pay attractive emoluments as in the private sector.

2.     Mental health is generally a taboo area which is not given its importance. Hence a higher proportion of people are suffering from loneliness, alienation, depression and stress in society than admitted since these issues are generally swept under the carpet. This is found in all sections of society and is going to get exacerbated by rising frequency, intensity, amplitude of extreme climate events. there will be a rise in existential despair, hopelessness, meaninglessness of life and grief due to loss of near ones due to calamities.  Societies need to propagate yoga and meditation for coping with climate related stress, depression, etc. The yoga schools could be along the lines of the Art of Living and Ramdev in India. Modi, PM of India has contributed a lot in popularizing yoga through the UN.  Hypnosis therapy, psychoanalysis and psychiatry for severe mental illnesses like paranoia, acute schizophrenia will be useful.

Large scale use of medicines would be required for calming the sections of populations suffering from hyper anxiety during the acute stages of accelerating climate change, which might be preceded and accompanied by breakdown of the financial system, law and order, communication, acute food scarcity, hyperinflation, disruption of transportation and so on. Innovative ways of covering large proportion of population could be by administering medicines through water supply if so warranted though it might not be ethical or acceptable now. Medicinal cannabis could be useful for suitably calming population with high degree of climate anxiety.

Chanting of OM and other Vedic chants in large groups of people will help overcome fear and losses of near ones. There will arise need for counselling centres for those undergoing traumas, etc., those separated from their families due to stoppage of air travel, trains, buses, etc., and vulnerable segments like children, old and pregnant.

Fear of death is another issue which all humans will face. Here oriental teachings from Buddhism, Hinduism will be useful. Knowledge dissemination on Pralaya (Hindu concept of end of the world) and Samadhi state (mind in its most concentrated state) will also help facing the ultimate reality. Euthanasia should be legalized in all societies in order to provide exit options with dignity.

3.     Fresh water scarcity is already a global crisis which is going mount as heatwaves, melting of glaciers, depletion of underground water intensify. Most of the rivers are shrinking and getting more polluted. This is an existential problem of epic proportions which governments, scientists have to solve fast. Recycling of sewage water and desalination of seawater techniques need to developed at low cost so higher proportion of population can be provided by the municipal and government authorities. Again, these are costs which most governments have to meet by increasing fiscal deficits and national debt.

4.     Media has big role to play in helping the population cope better with the coming civilisation decline and collapse. So far media has not really given the due importance to climate change. Percentage of reporting coverage and space in print media is abysmal. Media also does not join the dots between the rising number of extreme climate events, deterioration of environment, strange and unnatural phenomenon. The fossil lobby, deep state, industrial oligarchs, technology titans either control media or are on the same side of the fence. The media also controls most of us through movies. Human race has been conditioned by capitalism. The governments too are not overtly interested in disseminating climate news, analyses and forecasting among the populace at large fearing widespread panic and financial market crash. Hence here the role of research institutes, independent media like The Guardian, New York Times, BBC, universities, websites, etc. cannot be overemphasized. There is an urgent need for videos, documentaries, articles on climate change and how to cope with it on media channels TV, print, internet, radio. Research based individuals and institutions should publish climate dashboards so more people are able to see at a glance the entire reality.

Social media has an important role to play in communicating climate change impact and coping mechanisms. Facebook, twitter, YouTube, Google+, websites can educate people about the reality of coming future. People should realise that time remaining is finite. Again, the normal human response is denial. Nevertheless, its essential that climate believers should be ready with blueprints to help population at large to cope with the looming existential crises.

5.     All countries need to set up climate ministries or suitably upgrade environment departments at all levels. The structure should be linked to grassroot level climate activist workers. In times of crises these workers should be able coordinate efforts at the local levels like buildings, residential layouts, offices, etc. The present COP24 meeting should come out with strong decisions binding on all countries to reduce carbon by 100% much earlier than the IPCC report’s 2050. Climate emergency should be declared. Highest level alerts should be sounded now instead of waiting for more simultaneous extreme events.  

6.     As climate change intensifies the migrant crisis will rise exponentially. Europe is already inundated. India has been suffering from Bangladesh migrants since the war with Pakistan in 1971. Climate migrants also a burgeoning problem in the Sundarbans delta spread across India and Bangladesh. Rising sea levels, salinity in water has forced millions to migrate inwards towards Kolkata and Dacca. All governments, humanitarian organisations. UN, World Bank should be ready with schemes and plans to handle the intensifying crises.


These are some action points for humanity to deal and cope with accelerating climate change. Change is getting telescoped exponentially now. Since the sixties carbon emissions have shot up rapidly. The curve is becoming steeper. It is very difficult to envisage fully the contours of human civilisation and the world by 2030. We are living through the most surreal times of this planet. We need to do all to face and cope with the numbing truth and abyss towards which we are hurtling.


[1] CO₂ and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions)
[2] Twilight of Civilisation as we knew it… by Pradeep Das (newgrammaroflife.blogspot.com dt oct 2, 2017)
[3] Kurzweil, Ray The Singularity is Near (2005)
[4] Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock (1970)
[5] BP Energy Outlook 2035: bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats January 2014 (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp-country/de_at/pdfs/2014_2035_energy_outlook_booklet.pdf)
[6] Unexpected future boost of methane possible from Arctic permafrost FEATURE | August 20, 2018 (https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost/)
[7] Various YouTube videos especially posted during past three months.
[8] Global Climate and Ecosystem Change: Edited by Gordon J. MacDonald and Luigi Sertoria, NATO ASI Series, 1989
[9] Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change by Nathaniel Rich, NYT Aug 1, 2018
[10] https://www.clubofrome.org/
[11] https://ccb.stanford.edu/paul-r-ehrlich
[12] An Inconvenient Truth: Documentary film directed by Davis Guggenheim on Al Gore’s campaign on global warming.
[13] http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20150408-bhutans-dark-secret-to-happiness
[14] https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/tibet/understand/dying.html
[15] Coping with Climate Change
[16] https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/ahmedabad-heat-action-plan-2018.pdf
[17] https://www.newgrammarofliving.blogspot.com

Read More
#
Integrated Heat Acti...
 2019-02-09
Almost all over the world temperatures have been rising over the past 20/30 years beyond the long-term historical recorded trend. This rise has perhaps got accentuated over the past five years or so. It is accelerating every five years. The past three years have witnessed new highs on all continents. In view of this it is essential that appropriate measures are adopted for alleviating high heat waves. There is an urgent need for an integrated holistic approach to combat and survive the severe heat waves which will only deteriorate in the coming decades. New Grammar of Living forecasts that by 2035-50 average temperatures will be about 2⁰Cthan obtaining now. Hence need for proactive measures to be implemented from now instead of waiting before it’s too late. Humans to eschew their energy intensive lifestyles.   

1.     Houses:
a.    All buildings to be based upon principles of heat reduction and reflecting.
b.    Colour of outer walls and roofs white, light shades.
c.     Outer walls should be made of hollow bricks¹.
d.    Roofs either exterior or interior should have appropriate insulation². Choice of exteriors in rural areas: thatch, tiles coloured white.  
e.    Windows / doors to have white curtains.
f.     During peak heat hours, need for wet curtains, khus khus curtains. Khus Khus is an aromatic grass, which acts as a natural coolant. Curtains and mats made of the material are sprinkled with water to keep rooms cool in summer³.
g.    Wet sacks on dwellings with tin / corrugated roofs. 

2.     Clothing:
a.    Light colour, cotton. Cover as much of body as possible when going out. 
b.    For indoors, shorts and t-shirts, round-neck tees ideal.  
c.     For >45⁰ C, thin layers of cotton for insulation.
d.    Appropriate wide rimmed head gear. In rural areas pagri, turban, topi, duppata, etc. 
e.    Protection from UV rays by covering face or applying cream. 
f.     Suits strictly banned.
g.    Short hair. 

3.     Households: 
a.    Restrictions on AC usage. To be used only when temps go above 30C.
b.    Ban on use of personal care products like electric hair dryers, shavers, clothes irons.
c.     Ban on household consumer durables like washing machines, dish washers, mixies, juicers, toasters, vacuum cleaners, deep freezers. 
d.    Internal lighting norms and caps to be fixed in terms of lumens.
e.    Living space for households / families to be capped in terms of sq ft / cu ft per head. Excess sq ft / cu fts rooms in houses to be closed for use.  


4.    City restructuring: 
a.    No new sanctions for buildings in cities with population above 10,000. 
b.    Hence forth only green standard buildings in areas which are environment friendly.
c.     Illegal structures to be demolished.
d.    Green surface areas to increase.
e.    Plant trees on empty plots.
f.     Roads and other structures to be painted white.

5.     Decongest cities:
a.    People not working in cities to be shifted / deported to towns, villages.
b.    Send offices which need not be CBDs (central business districts) to suburbs, periphery of cities, towns.
c.     Car usage on alternate days and compulsory pooling.
d.    Take over properties of closed fossil based & related industries after giving them time to sell. Give them token compensation and green bonds. Convert to green uses.
e.    Targets to reduce populations of cities to environmentally safe and friendly levels. Safe and friendly levels to be defined.
f.     Build alternative tier 2/3 cities and outskirts where companies and employees can be moved out of city CBDs.
g.    Rehabilitate people sent of cities.

6.     Carbon reduction:
a.    Shut down non-essential carbon intensive manufacturing / businesses in phase 1. Essential manufacturing / businesses to move over to 0/low carbon products/processes within time bound framework or close if not able to.
b.    Green / carbon indices for buildings, offices, institutions, factories, businesses. Audits for ensuring proper implementation. 
c.     Plans for 0 carbon targets by 2020/22.
d.    Audits for electric consumption and AC usage. Caps for consumption & usage for all categories of electricity consumers based upon consumption standards set up by CC authorities. 
e.    Electricity use budgets for all consumers (household and commercial) based upon basic needs standards and per caput / activity use.
f.     Targets for increasing production of electricity produced from alternative renewal energy sources especially solar. Solar panels on all eligible surfaces in phased manner.

7.     Organisational Structure:
a.    Appoint Climate Champions in each city district / area. He/she will implement / monitor HAP/CAP. Person will coordinate with all street heads and building heads. They will be assisted by Climate volunteers for groups of families / people. 
b.    Clear-cut roles and functions for all posts.
c.     Targets for reducing carbon, electricity and water usage. 
d.    At the country level Governance Structure:
                                               i.     Ministry of Climate Change
                                              ii.     Ministry of Energy Use
                                            iii.     Ministry of New Economics,

8.     Governance and Political Setup:
a.    Climate emergency government / Benevolent dictatorship.
b.    Climate scientists and economists to set up all policies.
c.     Climate Marxism for reducing inequalities.


9.     Communities: 
a.    Cooling centres / shelters to accommodate poor who do not have cooling facilities. Heat Risk Cards (HRC) will be issued to all people who are at heat risk due to lack of coolers, ACs, fans, etc. admission to these cooling centres strictly based on HRCs. 
b.    Cooling centres will be constituted of all cinema halls, auditoriums, libraries, closed offices’ etc which can double up as cooling centres during peak heat hours. 
c.     Fan distributions programs for below poverty line (BPL) people. 
d.    Fans in bus stands.
e.    Top rich will have to share their extra / spare cool facility accommodation with BPL in phased manner. 

10.  Diet / Food:
a.    Compulsory vegetarian / vegan food. Less carbon intensive and easily digestible. 
b.    Ban on meats starting with carbon / water intensive ones like beef, other red meat, steroid meats like chicken, fish from polluted waters or disappearing species.
c.     Only aging cattle, sheep, goats, etc can be sold to those in population most deserving like old, critically ill below 40 yrs, children. Not to the rich based upon price. 
d.    All food recipes should be so that they will require low energy cooking processes. High energy food dishes to be phased out within one year. 
e.    Reduce food wastage to 0 in two years. Make it punishable offence. 
f.     Encourage vegetarian cuisine globally. 
g.    New laws on curbing, then stopping fast food, sweets, etc which harm health. 
h.    Black market in banned food to be punished severely. 
i.      Need of new-borns, children and old below 70 to be met on priority basis.
j.      Link food purchases to Aadhaar card. Rations and caps on food categories based on software driven new nutrition guidelines. Family budgets based upon actual needs. 

11.  Population Control / Family Planning: 
a.    Stop new births from cut-off date.
b.    Forced abortions post cut-off date.
c.     Adoption of kids from large families by no kid couples.
d.    Compulsory sterilisations after first kid. 
e.    Incentives for those who voluntarily offer excess kids for adoption, voluntary sterilisations, don’t want kids, adopt kids. 
f.     Selective population growth in order to maintain minimum demographic balance. Workforce ratio to be maintained since gradually most countries will be having aging populations. 

12.  Finance and Economics:
a.    Impose green tax on those companies, building complexes which are not adhering the green living norms. 
b.    Green bonds to be launched for raising funds for green development.
c.     Move towards green currency which will be only exchange currency for green activities. Non-green activities will run on non-green or black money, which will be taxed heavily. 
d.    Universal basic income for all who lose jobs due the upheaval caused by closing non-green businesses.

e.    Climate insurance schemes.

Read More
#
Twilight of Civilisa...
 2019-02-11

Written 2 October 2017

Everything... society, countries, economies, politics, institutions, cities, businesses, politics, technology, AI, humans, human relationships, children, environment, nature, animals, fish, flora and fauna, climate have entered the twilight stage of existence.. the meaninglessness of all things is getting deeper and deeper...it is as if it's one gigantic fish bowl zombie Matrix existence ....where everything is going through its paces and lines ... as if part of some existential drama is being enacted in its last act and scenes... humans like the walking dead are lurching on blindly...looking without seeing...hearing without listening... a veritable theatre of the absurd... conditioned to the power infinity...living or dying dreams within dreams existences..

As the great anthropogenic era draws to an apocalyptic ending ... planet earth has starting weeping.... unheard of and unprecedented geoclimatic events are occurring with increasing fury, frequency, pace, intensity, amplitude, standard deviation... a tiny sample of these recent surreal magic realism climate events are:

  • ·         Wild fires in the Antarctica, Canada, Siberia, Greenland caused by exposed methane after melting of permafrost..
  •  ·       High temps of 41 to 44 c over huge swathes of Southern Europe...
  •  ·       Rain bombs.... Unusually high precipitation (sometimes three times of high averages of 1” per hour for say 4/5 hours), storms and flooding in US, Europe, gulf, south east Asia, South America
  •  ·        Heatwaves and rain in Australia during winter..
  • ·         Increasing drought and famines in Africa...dry and weak micro cloud rains...


The surreal magic realism is present in all spheres of existence... The recent antics of a paranoid prez in White House .... Managing by tweeting....singing praises of white supremists ....country tottering precariously on a financial precipice ....being responsible for after putting the entire globe on a rich carbon diet... Through Hollywood...SUVs...coke...Levi's....malls...consumerism....fossil fuel...

Everything seems to be spinning out of control....terror...financial decline of Europe ...wars....stand off with North Korea....migrants streaming into Europe....conflict within Islam in several countries....

These are indeed epochal times...inflexion point of human civilisation...it's very clear that everything seems to be falling apart...especially for some one born in the early 50s...for whom this is the seventh decade on this planet....for someone who has seen the best decades of the world ...the 50s...peaking during the 60s....the first signs of decline were perhaps the 70s....the start of the oil crises....crude prices shooting up...rise of the petro power and Arabs...in fact the greed and the avarice of the Americans for crude...contributed to the turn of events...this was around the time the gold standard was abandoned...

Maybe the decline of the western civilisation began with the oil crises...ironically....though tech and innovation kept increasing productivity and GDP still the first signs of economic weakening...debt started creeping up....Reagan was gov of California and he opened the floodgates of deficit budgets and debt...then when he became president of US ....he introduced reliance on debt with help of treasury secretaries from Goldman Sachs...

one of the main triggers of the burgeoning debt was the long string of wars being fought by USA on foreign soil...starting with Korea....these costly wars and covert wars / operations were necessary to ensure American hegemony over the world...most civilisations when they peak, they need extensive armed forces to police their territories....apart from the external wars USA was also waging a war internally with the economically lower segments like the blacks, Hispanics...in order to control them into submission...in the inner cities.. the level of incarceration very high...in fact highest ratio in the world ....most of the prisoners framed for minor misdemeanours like possessing marijuana....which has no logical reason to be illegal .....white supremacy dictate runs high...

In this manner the world's greatest ever society or civilisation...had peaked in the 60s...and there after declined...the very seeds of its destruction...like a being mass consumer throwaway society...prisoner of the capitalistic system wherein the corporate sector must keep on increasing its valuation as indicated by the gigantic stock market casinos....a quarter to quarter existence ....focus on short term gimmicks to impress analysts with express intent of flogging profits and share prices.....but no focus upon intrinsic long term wealth creation through real customer satisfaction and loyalty...

Thanks to globalisation, technology, Internet, media, tv, aviation, shipping, international trade....america's socio-economic model was exported and copied all over the world...sale of bigger cars, consumer durables, air-conditioning....Hollywood, rock n roll.....high energy intensive lifestyles....malls, high rises......rest of the world's impressionistic youth wanting all the so called American way of life...now...the world has become full of American clones..blended with each country's culture....one can detect various planes of Americanisms in the developing world....be it Asia, Africa, South America....this way all of us became fossil fuel dependent junkies...

For one brief shining moment there was Camelot...the magic of America... Kennedy...the peak of human civilisation in terms of pomp and grandeur...then the decline began in almost all spheres...the decline was in real debt adjusted terms...though in terms of technology, IT, AI, etc a lot of advances have been made....but in terms of the big critical parameters like societies, economies and climate....definitely there is a cause of alarm as all indicators are in decline inspite of all the apparent glitter and glamour which is desperately trying cover the stench of dying flesh putrefying .....there is just too much to worry about...we have morphed since the 60s....into a has been society.. civilisation.....


Finally climate is going to be the biggest game changer....will level the differences between the rich and the poor....probably only the ultra-rich and robots will survive the looming CLIMOCALYPSE....which maybe about 10,000 days away…..

posted by Pradeep Das @ October 02, 2017


Read More
#
Climate Reporting & ...
 2019-03-31
Climate change is accelerating. In spite of extreme climate events increasing all over the world there is no proper reporting of climate change except as standalone events not related to other such events. Most of these events don’t even find their way into the headlines or first page. 

Bill Giles, pioneering BBC meteorologist, wrote recently that news channels should have slots for climate change http://amp.skymetweather.com/content/climate-change/bill-giles-calls-on-broadcasters-to-talk-about-climate-change/. In my blog “Death of Seasons...Climocalypse” posted on 28-5-2017, l had written “Inspite of a quantum increase in extreme climate events the media is not reporting it in a holistic way....it merely reports the events as they occur without attempting to join the dots and paint the big picture” https://newgrammaroflife.blogspot.com/2017/03/death-of-seasonsclimocalypse.html. 

It is now amply clear that during the past couple of decades irreversible climate changes are taking place and there is definitely a rising trend of warming (heat records are outnumbering cold records by two times or so), extreme climate events, storms, flooding, sea level rise, and so on. Most of us are aware of it but do not like to face the inconvenient truth or discuss it. In Oct 2018, the UN IPCC Report gave humanity a 12-year deadline 2030 to reduce carbon emissions by 50% if we are to limit temperature rise to 1.5 C. This indeed is a Herculean task. 

Now comes the daunting question of how are we going to achieve it. Certainly, it needs the active and coordinated participation of all of us. Most of us are living in denial. We are so immersed, embedded, addicted to our energy intensive, car dependent, capitalistic, consumeristic lives that we think carbon reduction is the job of governments only and that we cannot do anything about it. Carbon reduction is something where we don’t have a role except a few perfunctory steps like having organic food which is more of a status and fashion statement, buying energy efficient gadgets, electric cars. Our levels of awareness of climate change are abysmally low. 

We really cannot blame the general population for not being aware of the deep inroads which climate change has made into all our continents, oceans and atmosphere. The governments and main stream media have made no efforts to spread awareness among the populace at large. There are several reasons behind it. Some of the major reasons are governments do want to be unpopular by being harbinger of bad news or want to introduce harsh measures to control carbon emissions since big industry and fossil lobby are against climate measures since their incomes and profits will be adversely affected. Since the 1980s, scientists of the US have been repeatedly urging the government to control and reduce carbon emission. The deep state and the entrenched fossil lobby have prevailed and the successive governments have done nothing about it. Rest of the world follows suit. No one wants to slow or stop the wheels of capitalism. 

Hence now that time is limited, society at large must be made aware of the intensifying climate crises. Mainstream media, educational institutions, governments, social groups, healthcare sector have a major role to play in disseminating climate news. At the basic level, daily weather reports and forecasts on TV, newspapers, online channels, etc. need to change the coverage of weather from one being extremely short term and myopic to more medium /long term and analytical in content along with widening coverage to include environmental factors.

Simple additions which can be incorporated either daily, weekly, or on rotational basis are: 

1. Past weekly or monthly averages for high, low and average temperatures compared to historical averages for highs, lows and averages since beginning of records or previous 10 years, 50 years, etc.
2. For heatwaves, humidity and wet bulb temperatures compared to historical, number of days continuously or in a 30-day period above 35C/40C. 
3. Similarly, for rainfall, snow averages compared to historical averages, highest during a particular period, year to date cumulative totals vis-à-vis historical average, highest, lowest. 
4. Year to date number of days of rain, snow compared to historical data during comparable periods. 
5. Intensity of rainfall, snow in cms, inches during number of hours and average per hour compared to historical figures.
6. Record highs and lows of temperature, precipitation, snow, humidity, etc. 
7. Changes in start and end of seasons.
8. Pollution (atmospheric, water) index / levels vis-à-vis historical figures. 
9. Aquifer levels, number of dry wells, river levels - comparisons, trends. 
10. Contamination levels of water.
11. Garbage collections, disposal with breakups of wet, dry and recycle able waste wherever possible. 

The above are some basic metrics which can used for spreading awareness of climate change. This will necessitate computerising time series data available at all weather stations, and other sources in all countries. Presently US, Europe, other developed countries, large economies like India have comprehensive weather and climate data, forecasting systems. The American and European forecasting systems are most evolved. The NOAA of the US is perhaps the most sophisticated. There are several weather data agencies world over. 

Inspite of all the advanced weather and climate systems, population at large views climate change in a disembodied manner like death which happens to others but not oneself. Hence it is the bounden duty of responsible media, intellectuals, climate change believers to help humanity realise that climate change is integrally linked to our day to day weather and lives and that it is happening in real-time and accelerating. 

During my childhood from the early 1960s, as a ten-year-old I used to read the weather report daily in The Statesman, Kolkata, India. It was on the first page column 1 at the bottom. I had a strong fascination for noting the temperatures daily which was a precursor to my present obsession with climate change. But nowadays many newspapers have relegated weather reports to page 3 or to the local section page. Even extreme climate events if in another continent or country are reduced to tiny reports consigned to the inner recesses of the newspapers.

In order to link climate change to daily weather reports there is an urgent need to present on TV, newspapers, magazines, digital medium, etc the figures for the latest, trends, averages, cumulative, records, high, lows, etc in terms of: 

1. Holistic weather reports as outlined above on page 1 with basic analysis. 
2. Weekly roundup of extreme climate and environment related events across the globe under different categories like heat, cold, precipitation, floods, wildfires, drought, etc.
3. Monthly roundup of atmospheric carbon and methane levels globally; country / region level carbon emissions, source wise carbon emissions, etc along with trends since 1950s or so; melt status of Arctic, Antarctica, glaciers in Greenland, Himalayas, etc.

The above reports and presentations need to be ideally made in dashboard formats with graphs, charts so that the information transmission is powerful and arresting. We are in an age of information overload. Hence need for attracting eyeballs in a hyper competitive media world with so much clutter. Some of the other innovative communication interfaces could be electronic hoardings, kiosks and the like at airports, stations, important road crossings, malls, plazas, etc. with horizontal, vertical scrolling sections and dashboards like in the top three sections of my website https://climocalypse.com.

For preparing the analysis, there will be need for researchers using simple statistical analysis tools like averages, moving averages, correlation, auto regressive models along with software and apps. All this requires sponsors from big industry and business, involvement of university departments / units like the MAHB (Millennium Alliance for Humanity and Biosphere) of Stanford University, governments, cause friendly publication groups like The Guardian of UK, etc. 

Macro climate research data is available at several websites like NOAA, Copernicus, World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/#, Climate Reality, Climate Matters, Global Pm 2.5, etc. Micro city locality wise data is available in most large cities. Bengaluru has Yuktix http://www.yuktix.com/open-weather-project/. 

The objective of climate reporting and information systems should be to evangelically spread the truth about accelerating climate change, influence and motivate people into reducing their carbon footprint by about 5 to 10% per annum from 2020 if humanity is to survive. The dire consequences of not reducing emissions should also be conveyed as part of the mission. 

There is an urgent need for apps and online platforms which can help both individuals and communities (housing layouts, buildings) measure and track their carbon emissions (their top 5 or so emission sources constituting major part of their total emissions). These apps/ platforms should also enable them to set goals for reducing emissions on an annual basis which can be monitored on monthly or quarterly basis. Easiest to track would be electricity consumption in kilowatt hours, petrol in litres, gas consumption in kwh, air travel in kms, hotel (star wise) stays in days, etc. Tracking can be done by the providers of energy services, utility companies, producers who have data of consumers. Banks, credit card companies are another source of consumer direct spends on carbon emitting products and services.  Governments, corporates, businesses should incentivise their employees to set ambitious carbon emission reduction goals and achieve them. 

The need for educating the public on accelerating climate change cannot be over emphasised. Ideally the best place to start would be at schools and colleges. They have a greater stake in the future than us. We can ignite their minds about the impending changes in climate, how it will make their lives so much more difficult and different during the next few decades, and why we need to act now. 

Greta Thunberg’s movement “We Don’t Have Time” expresses our human predicament so very cogently and poignantly, ironically by a 16-year-old, which we adults have failed to comprehend. I have explained to my 4-year old granddaughter about the dangers of burning coal, cutting trees and why school children were on strike on March 15th recently. She understood it so well, told me that we will not be having oxygen and get burnt by the heat. Truly children have a better vision of our burning planet than us. 




Read More